Mission: To Widen an understanding of Socionomics pictorially with minimum text
What is Socionomics?
The Predictability of the future
The study of the relationship between social mood and social behavior pioneered by Robert R. Prechter, Jr. Socionomic theory proposes that social mood influences the aggregate character of social actions, such as those found in the economy, financial markets and politics.
Socionomics Institute definition:
Social mood predisposes individuals in the group toward emotions, beliefs and actions. It fluctuates constantly in a fractal pattern. It is unconscious, unremembered and endogenously regulated. Socionomic theory proposes that social mood governs the character of social events.
The Study of "Collective" Social Mood and How to Profit and plan from it
Whilst encouraging you to visit the Socionomics Institute website where you can access a myriad of superb analysis of Economic, Monetary and Cultural topics through the lens of a Socionomist, free and/or by subscription from the best in the forecasting business, the purpose of SimplySocionomics is to do just that, simplify it as an introduction.
Observing the Not So Obvious
The Power of "Herding" in Matters Financial
Robert Prechter long ago observed that whilst the human race naturally "herd," think music, movies and fashion, they do so particularly in matters financial, such as investing and house buying, as there is an "uncertainty" involved as to just how to value a financial entity, hence they "sub-consciously herd." Humans act logically when it comes to non-financial transactions, think "buy one get one free," but they act IL-logically when it comes to buying stocks or buying a house, as can be seen within the chart above. The higher home prices go, the more people buy and vice-versa.
Aside of this applying to most "professional investors," also, the study of financial markets, and in particular the main stock-indices, provides a wonderful "barometer," of collective social mood, higher infers rising optimism whilst lower observes a more pessimistic society. Furthermore, as stock-indices are fractal in nature, meaning they repeat the same pattern over all degrees of time be it minutes and/or decades, they offer a fair degree of predictability on not only the financial markets but life in general, such as Politics, Taxes, Population growth and the propensity towards War to name but a few.
The Barometer of Mood
Positive & Negative Collective Social Mood
Contrary to popular belief, mood governs events not events govern mood and this is confirmed by the above. It shows the most watched stock-index on the planet, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Dow, in both nominal terms and in real terms, which effectively strips out the "debt inflation" of the past 40+ years and in particular the last 8 year period, when American debt has accumulated by as much as the previous combined 200+ years since the American Constitution was founded.
If you have any doubts as to the rationale of comparing nominal against real, then just take a glance at a selection of the positive and negative traits observed by Prechter in his ground-breaking classic, "Pioneering Studies in Socionomics," and then pause to reflect on the events of the past year and the past decade come to that.
Changing the Way that you View the World
For a look to the future, we must study the past.
Plus strive for the best.
You are encouraged to visit the Institute's site where an extensive range of free information is available on the predictive qualities of social mood
They have also designed an introductory offer to the Socionomics Membership for people who are new to socionomics. The Socionomist publication is a terrific way to discover how social mood pervades every area of society and drives much of human history and is available at a discount for a 3-month period plus to get your hands on the five most recent issues.
30+ years of investment experience...... advising, managing, analysing, writing, commenting, watching and listening.......confirm to me at least that markets, which after all are made up of decisions by human beings on whether to Buy,Sell or hold, are repetitive and not random...as such their predictability can be of immense use for not just investment decision-making but for life in general, be it of political change, the arts, propensity towards war, pandemics, sex to name but a few areas.
You are welcome to join me on the journey forward, assisted by many lessons from the past, in what is hoped you will find a rewarding, thought-provoking, contrarian experience with some added humour
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"Contrarians are Born, Socionomists are Taught" was a really thought provoking video Charlie! What an amazing wealth of knowledge you have to share. I am keen to understand more about Socionomics and will keep informed with your website....Joanna R Specialist grant writer, strategic planner and project manager, Adelaide, Australia